![]() ![]() I checked the reverse, as well: zero-leverage passing by winning teams. This does not taint the career of an all-time great QB, but when we put his stats in context, especially relative to his most accomplished contemporaries, it bears consideration that Brees took advantage of zero-leverage situations and his peers did not. The difference between Brees and his HOF contemporaries is striking and significant. He threw often and efficiently in situations when doing so did not materially help his team, and when other elite QBs were handing off, kneeling out the clock, or sitting on the bench. So what does this all mean? In short, it means that yes, Drew Brees padded his stats in garbage time. While the effect on his overall stats is minor, this suggests that Brees did pad his statistics by passing - far more frequently than anyone else in the league - in situations when the outcome was no longer in question, and against defenses that were playing less aggressively because of the lopsided score and the minimal time remaining. ![]() His advantages compared to Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers - the peers to whom he is most often compared - are particularly pronounced, and significant in analyzing their respective careers.įurthermore, Brees’ passer rating and NY/A were noticeably higher in these zero-leverage situations than his overall stats during the same time period. Since all credible systems of statistical analysis account for volume at some point, Brees’ production should be evaluated with this consideration in mind. If true, this would artificially inflate his counting stats, since other players were not afforded the same opportunity. Only Eli Manning is even remotely close to Brees in garbage time production.īased on these data, I would suggest that in situations when most teams are running out the clock, Brees was still throwing. While Brees has played throughout that time frame, he has far more garbage time production, and better garbage time efficiency, than peers such as Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Tony Romo, whose playing time was similar. The Saints rank 25th, 18th, and 12th in total offensive plays in the game/score categories above - fewer such opportunities than an average team. P/B/R: 3/11, 30 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 1.7 rating, 1 sack/-9, 1.75 NY/Aīrees has far more volume in these situations than any other player, and his advantage can not be explained exclusively by playing time in blowout-loss situations. Runners-up: Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, Marc Bulger, Matthew Staffordīrees has 70% more yardage than second place. Rating Leader*: Blake Bortles (116.5), runners-up Brees and Blaine Gabbertīrees: 78/106, 789 yds, 9 TD, 3 INT, 110.9 rating, 5 sacks/-27, 6.86 NY/A Runners-up: Eli Manning, Blake Bortles, Matt Cassel, Matt Hasselbeck Runners-up: Matt Cassel, Matt Hasselbeck, Drew Brees, Jay Cutler Please pardon the informal prose and formatting this was originally composed as a comment, not an article. “P/B/R” indicates the combined total of Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers. ![]() I tried to align this with a very conservative definition of “garbage time” … all data are from 2004-17 - 2004 was Brees’ first good season - and none of the game/score situations below produced any wins by any team during those years. Brees threw a lot in garbage timeWhat I thought was an off-hand musing about Drew Brees’ production in low-leverage situations (for my ongoing series about the greatest statistical QBs in history) sparked a surprisingly contentious debate about whether Brees had padded his stats in garbage time. ![]()
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